Decision Day with Annalisa: Humpty Dumpty

Traditional nursery rhyme: Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall Humpty Dumpty had a great fall All the King’s Horses and all the King’s Men Couldn’t put Humpty together again . …………………………………………………… Right, that’s decided. I’m getting up on this wall. Hold on a minute… or fifteen… Mr Dumpty. Do you think this is a wise […]

Decision Day with Annalisa: Hamlet, Prince of Denmark

Annalisa meets up with Hamlet at the opening of his most famous soliloquy, models the way he sees his decision and suggests an alternative analysis that leads to a superior option. This is rejected by William Shakespeare.

JUDEMAKIA: a map of the world of judgement and decision making in health

...................................................................................................

Judemakia is the world of JUdgement and DEcision MAKing, in which the flanking continents of Belief-land and Prefer-land supply the resources for the central continent of Decision-land. All three have latitudinal regions that embody differing balances of Intuition and Analysis in line with Hammond’s Cognitive Continuum theory. The resulting map, focused on health, can help us picture the nature of differing Decision Technologies and gain insight into the disputes surrounding them.

Decision Resource-Effectiveness Analysis

towards Value of Analysis Analysis

Decision Resource-Effectiveness Analysis (DREA) is proposed as the appropriate technique for evaluating alternative ways of making decisions (Decision Technologies – DTs) and supporting decision makers (Decision Support Technologies – DSTs).

The future of HTA is MCDA

The future of Health Technology Assessment lies in the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

What makes news?

A model of news value

A multi-criteria model of news value is proposed in which an event generates Prominence-Adjusted Column Inches (PACIs) to the extent that its probability is low, its unsigned utility is high, its implications for probability and utility large and it is of basic personal interest. Isofleets map the contours of news value in the simple 2 variable model and provide a formal basis for assessing whether there is a bias to ‘bad news’. An illustrative example in Annalisa software is provided.

Multi-element competitions are often scored inappropriately

Heptathlon, Men’s Triathlon, 3 Day Event and Mens Pentathlon medals around wrong necks?

The results for combined sporting events may not be those which would result from giving equal weight to the component elements in this competition and therefore breach their fundamental principle. Examples from the Beijing Olympics where medals are affected are provided

Jack DOWIE

Jack DOWIE is Emeritus Professor of Health Impact Analysis at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

Decision Day with Annalisa : John Snow

Annalisa meets John Snow, famous for his epidemiological studies in mid-Victorian England. Annalisa has the ability to meet with characters, real or fictional, past or present, on a day they are taking an important decision. She helps them explore whether they are making the best decision. In this decision making session the character knows nothing about what happened subsequently and, while Annalisa does know, she consciously minimises the effect of that hindsight knowledge on what she says and does with them. Afterwards she brings her guest briefly into the present day to show and discuss what actually happened subsequently.